September 2026: What It Told Us and What to Adjust for Q4

The analysis nobody does

September is over. Sales have been processed, orders shipped, customers taken care of. And most stores turn the page and start thinking about Black Friday without looking back.

That's a mistake. Your September data is the best input you have for planning your Q4. Every number is telling you something about your store, your customers, and your operations. But only if you sit down and read them.

This is what I review with every store after Fiestas Patrias — Chile's Independence Day celebrations in September, the country's biggest retail season outside of Christmas — and what you should be reviewing with yours.

The metrics that matter

1. Total sales vs. the previous year

The most basic one, but you need context. Did you sell more or less than last September? If you sold more, was it because you raised prices, sold more units, or both? If you sold less, was it due to lack of traffic, low conversion, or a lower average order value?

Don't settle for the raw number. Break it down.

2. ROAS (return on ad spend)

If you invested in ads, you need to know how much you generated for every dollar invested. A ROAS of 4x or higher generally means your campaign was profitable. Below 3x and you're probably operating at the margin.

But watch out: ROAS doesn't tell the whole story. If you acquired new customers who will come back to buy again, a ROAS of 2.5x can be a great long-term investment. If you only sold to existing customers who would have purchased anyway, a ROAS of 5x isn't as impressive as it looks.

3. New vs. returning customers

This is the metric I push clients to review the most. What percentage of September's sales came from new customers?

If more than 60% of your sales were from new customers, your acquisition campaign worked but you need to work on retention (check the previous post in this series).

If more than 80% were returning customers, your fan base is solid but you're not growing. Your September campaign should have attracted new people too.

The ideal balance depends on your stage, but generally 40-50% new customers in a seasonal campaign is a good indicator.

4. Average order value

Did it go up, down, or stay the same compared to your usual average? If it dropped, your discounts were probably too aggressive or your bundles didn't push the ticket upward. If it went up, you did something right — figure out what it was and repeat it.

One of our clients discovered that their average order value went up 25% in September simply because they offered free shipping over $50. Customers were adding products to reach the threshold. That insight goes straight into the Black Friday strategy.

5. Failed deliveries and complaints

How many orders arrived late? How many were returned? How many "where's my order?" inquiries did you receive?

If your logistics complaints exceeded 5% of orders, you have a problem that needs solving before the next peak season. Black Friday brings more volume than Fiestas Patrias, and if your logistics operation already failed in September, November will be worse.

6. Star products and dead products

Which products sold the most? Which ones didn't move despite being in the campaign? This information is gold for building your Black Friday selection.

Products that performed in September will likely perform in November with an additional push. The ones that didn't move — don't include them. They take up space on your landing page and distract the customer.

How to use this for Black Friday

Black Friday is 8 weeks after September ends. That's not a lot of time, but it's enough if you already have the data.

What you repeat from September:

• The products that sold the most
• The channels with the best ROAS
• The offer formats that worked (bundles, free shipping, etc.)
• The emails with the best open and conversion rates

What you change:

• If logistics failed, find alternatives or adjust timelines with more buffer
• If the average order value dropped due to discounts, try benefits instead of markdowns
• If you didn't capture enough new customers, invest more in acquisition
• If email open rates were low, change the subject lines and timing

The analysis template

Keep this simple. Open a spreadsheet and fill in:

Metric	September 2026	September 2025	Black Friday Goal
Total sales
Number of orders
Average order value
% new customers
ROAS by channel
Logistics complaints
Top 5 products

Filling this out takes one hour. And that hour can save you weeks of wrong decisions in November.

Don't wait until November

The worst time to plan Black Friday is the first week of November. The best time is now, with your September data still fresh.

September gave you real information about your store, your customers, and your operations. If you use it, you go into Black Friday with an advantage. If you ignore it, you'll repeat the same mistakes with more volume and more pressure.

The data doesn't lie. But it only works if you read it.